A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
